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The members of the firms who were surprised by this announcement had no time to deliberate. The bear clique was already selling the market down in the Exchange, and prices were declining frightfully. Investors started trading the next day, a Saturday, optimistic that the panic had subsided [pdf]. On Sunday morning, President Ulysses S.
Grant and the treasury secretary, William A. Richardson, came to New York, spending the day in consultation with Cornelius Vanderbilt, Henry Clews and other prominent business men to cobble together a solution. Businessmen, bankers and merchants flocked to the Fifth Avenue Hotel, beseeching President Grant to increase the currency by every means in his power, declaring that unless the government came to the rescue nothing could save the country from bankruptcy and ruin. Meanwhile, banking houses in cities outside New York also failed.
With the credit markets frozen, at one point the overnight lending rate shot to a quarter of a percentage point, Professor Nelson said, which annualized is about percent. The top national banks of New York formed a Clearing House Committee [pdf], pooling their cash and collateral into a common fund and issuing loan certificates against it that would operate like cash. This became the basis for the reconstruction of the credit markets. But it took about 40 days [pdf]. During the full course of the crisis, 73 members of the stock exchange and 5, mercantile companies [pdf] failed.
Even though the Wall Street panic was over, the commercial crisis across the country was just beginning because of the lingering credit crunch. Even two months later in Richmond, Va. A number of railroads defaulted in the payment of the interest on their bonds and railroad construction dropped from 7, miles in to 1, in [pdf]. Businesses with good credit curtailed their purchases, while those with bad credit had no buying power. The closing of cotton and iron mills and other manufacturers threw hordes of laborers into unemployment, many of them former Civil War soldiers.
Relief rolls grew rapidly in major cities, with 25 percent unemployment in New York City alone. The panic was not without political consequences. The collapse of farm prices set the scene for an agrarian insurgency.
This recession hit industrial workers particularly bad. A bitter antagonism emerged between workers and the leaders of banking and manufacturing, which led to labor unrest that continued through the following decades, resulting in some of the most violent strikes in American history.
The financial crisis led Congress to pass a bill in that would allow for more printing of currency to spur inflation and reduce the real value of debts. In a surprise move that was viewed by many as the most important event of his administration to that point, President Grant vetoed the bill. In early , Congress passed a bill, known as the Specie Resumption Act , which would back United States currency with gold. By pegging the dollar against hard currency, the act helped curb inflation, tame speculation and produce a stable dollar.
It turned the Republican Party toward a stance of conservative fiscal policies. The American and world economy did recover — slowly, but it took more than four years of depression. A New York Times magazine article assessed the panic, observing in a perhaps overly lyrical way:. However, as the sun always shines after rain, so conditions began to improve in , and by there was a better feeling throughout the nation.
Confidence returned slowly, but it did return, and the tide of prosperity rose steadily until its inspiration had penetrated every city and hamlet in the country. The fertile lands of the West and South brought forth bountiful harvests, and ocean commerce expanded under the stimulus of good crops. The excess of American exports was only one of the features of this golden period in our affairs, which broke all records.
Stocks began their rise in spring of , and in , men of means awoke suddenly to the fact that railroads were of value as investments after all, and a marvelous buying of securities sprang up, which electrified the financial world and led to a boom in prices. An optimist could perhaps argue that the current financial crisis will also cause consumers and businesses to change their habits. Indeed, some changes are already happening: The last independent investment banks have agreed to live with more regulations as they become bank holding companies , and consumer debt dropped in August, the first time it has fallen in a decade.
New Yorkers have my sympathy. They will have financial trouble for years. Wall street lay-offs are just beginning. No one has explained why we need all of these banks with home sales down, auto sales off thirty percent and no bubble to use to create CDOs. I must say that I agree with the comparison. However, it is very interesting that only one of your reference articles seems to give any notice of the man responsible for overseeing the stability of the banks.
I believe this is the current failure. There has not been enough attention placed on what the Comptroller of the Currency is doing. Who has been conducting the bank examinations? What have the examiner reports said of the soundness of the banks? John Jay Knox served as the Comptroller of the Currency from untill He was responsible for regulating the National Banking System.
At a time when no central bank existed in the United States, Mr. Knox can be considered the Paul Volker and Alan Greenspan of his day. His tenure as Comptroller of the Currency marks a period of how such a national currency administered through a national banking system lifted the United States to become the dominant financial power in the world.
On panics, Mr. Knox gave the analysis that they have frequently , , been brought on by overspeculation in real estate. This gives us a good idea of what will happen for years to come. The credit crunch will wind it way through the economy for years. Housing prices still have to drop alot and individuals must reduce their debt. Thank you for this write up. It argues that one of the primary causes was the attempt by important people and the media to stop market speculators. A second probable cause was the great expansion of investment trusts, public utility holding companies, and the amount of margin buying, all of which fueled the purchase of public utility stocks, and drove up their prices.
Public utilities, utility holding companies, and investment trusts were all highly levered using large amounts of debt and preferred stock. These factors seem to have set the stage for the triggering event. This sector was vulnerable to the arrival of bad news regarding utility regulation. In October , the bad news arrived and utility stocks fell dramatically.
After the utilities decreased in price, margin buyers had to sell and there was then panic selling of all stocks. Thus, the common viewpoint was that stock prices were too high. There is much to criticize in conventional interpretations of the stock market crash, however.
Even the name is inexact. The largest losses to the market did not come in October but rather in the following two years. In December , many expert economists, including Keynes and Irving Fisher, felt that the financial crisis had ended and by April the Standard and Poor composite index was at There are good reasons for thinking that the stock market was not obviously overvalued in and that it was sensible to hold most stocks in the fall of and to buy stocks in December admittedly this investment strategy would have been terribly unsuccessful.
From to the third quarter of , common stocks increased in value by percent in four years, a compound annual growth of The fact that the stock market lost 90 percent of its value from to indicates that the market, at least using one criterion actual performance of the market , was overvalued in The mass escape into make-believe, so much a part of the true speculative orgy, started in earnest.
Compare this position with the fact that Irving Fisher, one of the leading economists in the U. Paul Samuelson quotes P. The stock price increases leading to October , were not driven solely by fools or speculators. There were also intelligent, knowledgeable investors who were buying or holding stocks in September and October Also, leading economists, both then and now, could neither anticipate nor explain the October decline of the market.
Thus, the conviction that stocks were obviously overpriced is somewhat of a myth. The s were, in fact, a period of real growth and prosperity. For the period of , wholesale prices went down 0. Examining the manufacturing situation in the United States prior to the crash is also informative. What Fisher saw was manufacturing efficiency rapidly increasing output per worker as was manufacturing output and the use of electricity.
The financial fundamentals of the markets were also strong. During , the price-earnings ratio for 45 industrial stocks increased from approximately 12 to approximately It was over 15 in for industrials and then decreased to approximately 10 by the end of Values in this range would be considered reasonable by most market analysts today.
The rise in stock prices was not uniform across all industries. The stocks that went up the most were in industries where the economic fundamentals indicated there was cause for large amounts of optimism. They included airplanes, agricultural implements, chemicals, department stores, steel, utilities, telephone and telegraph, electrical equipment, oil, paper, and radio.
These were reasonable choices for expectations of growth. Industrial bonds of investment grade were yielding 5. Consider that an interest rate of 5. In , the Federal Reserve Bulletin reported production in at an index of This is an annual growth rate in production of 3. During the period commodity prices actually decreased. The production record for the ten-year period was exceptionally good. Factory payrolls in September were at an index of an all-time high. In October the index dropped to , which beat all previous months and years except for September The factory employment measures were consistent with the payroll index.
The September unadjusted measure of freight car loadings was at — also an all-time record. Kendrick shows that the period had an unusually high rate of change in total factor productivity. The annual rate of change of 5. Farming productivity change for was second only to the period Overall, the period easily took first place for productivity increases, handily beating the six other time periods studied by Kendrick all the periods studies were prior to with an annual productivity change measure of 3.
This was outstanding economic performance — performance which normally would justify stock market optimism. In the first nine months of , 1, firms announced increased dividends. In , the number was only and in , it was In September dividend increased were announced by firms compared with the year before. The financial news from corporations was very positive in September and October The August issue showed that for firms the increase for the first six months of compared to was In September, the results were expanded to firms with a The earnings for the third quarter for firms were calculated to be This is evidence that the general level of business activity and reported profits were excellent at the end of September and the middle of October Barrie Wigmore researched financial data for firms.
However, the return on equity for the firms using the year-end book value was a high The dividend yield was 2. Article after article from January to October in business magazines carried news of outstanding economic performance. Berger and A. To summarize: There was little hint of a severe weakness in the real economy in the months prior to October There is a great deal of evidence that in stock prices were not out of line with the real economics of the firms that had issued the stock.
Leading economists were betting that common stocks in the fall of were a good buy. Conventional financial reports of corporations gave cause for optimism relative to the earnings of corporations. Price-earnings ratios, dividend amounts and changes in dividends, and earnings and changes in earnings all gave cause for stock price optimism. Table 1 shows the average of the highs and lows of the Dow Jones Industrial Index for to Sources: measures are from the Stock Market Study, U.
Senate, , pp. Using the information of Table 1, from to stocks rose in value by The price increases were large, but not beyond comprehension. The price decreases taken to were consistent with the fact that by there was a worldwide depression. If we take the high of September and the year end value of Most of us, if we held stock in September would not have sold early in October. In fact, if I had money to invest, I would have purchased after the major break on Black Thursday, October I would have been sorry.
Although it can be argued that the stock market was not overvalued, there is evidence that many feared that it was overvalued — including the Federal Reserve Board and the United States Senate. By , there were many who felt the market price of equity securities had increased too much, and this feeling was reinforced daily by the media and statements by influential government officials.
My research minimizes several candidates that are frequently cited by others see Bierman , , , and Barsky and DeLong , p. In September , the market value of one segment of the market, the public utility sector, should be based on existing fundamentals, and fundamentals seem to have changed considerably in October While the and financial press focused extensively and excessively on broker loans and margin account activity, the statement by Snowden is the only unique relevant news event on October 3.
The October 4 p. The stock market went down on October 3 and October 4, but almost all reported business news was very optimistic. The primary negative news item was the statement by Snowden regarding the amount of speculation in the American stock market. The market had been subjected to a barrage of statements throughout the year that there was excessive speculation and that the level of stock prices was too high.
There is a possibility that the Snowden comment reported on October 3 was the push that started the boulder down the hill, but there were other events that also jeopardized the level of the market. On September 26 the Bank of England raised its discount rate from 5. England was losing gold as a result of investment in the New York Stock Exchange and wanted to decrease this investment.
The Hatry Case also happened in September. It was first reported on September 29, Both the collapse of the Hatry industrial empire and the increase in the investment returns available in England resulted in shrinkage of English investment especially the financing of broker loans in the United States, adding to the market instability in the beginning of October. On Wednesday, October 16, stock prices again declined.
The news reports of the Post on October 17 and subsequent days are important since they were Associated Press AP releases, thus broadly read throughout the country. The Associated Press reported p. The Times October 17, p. The economic news after the price drops of October 3 and October 4 had been good. But the deluge of bad news regarding public utility regulation seems to have truly upset the market.
On Saturday, October 19, the Washington Post headlined p. The negative factors were not very upsetting to an investor if one was optimistic that the real economic boom business prosperity would continue. The Times failed to consider the impact on the market of the news concerning the regulation of public utilities. On Monday, October 21, the market went down again. The Times October 22 identified the causes to be. The same newspaper carried an article about a talk by Irving Fisher p.
On Wednesday, October 23 the market tumbled. The Times headlines October 24, p. If the events of the next day Black Thursday had not occurred, October 23 would have gone down in history as a major stock market event. The Times lamented October 24, p. The Times p. A call loan is a loan payable on demand of the lender. There should not have been a crash.
The rest of the country seemed alarmed. On October 25, the market gained. A Times editorial p. Stocks again went down on Monday, October There were 9,, shares traded 3,, in the final hour. The Times on Tuesday, October 29 again carried an article on the New York public utility investigating committee being critical of the rate making process.
My interpretation of these events is that the statement by Snowden, Chancellor of the Exchequer, indicating the presence of a speculative orgy in America is likely to have triggered the October 3 break. Public utility stocks had been driven up by an explosion of investment trust formation and investing.
Public utility regulation was being reviewed by the Federal Trade Commission, New York City, New York State, and Massachusetts, and these reviews were watched by the other regulatory commissions and by investors. Then on October 24, the selling panic happened. There are three topics that require expansion. First, there is the setting of the climate concerning speculation that may have led to the possibility of relatively specific issues being able to trigger a general market decline.
Second, there are investment trusts, utility holding companies, and margin buying that seem to have resulted in one sector being very over-levered and overvalued. Third, there are the public utility stocks that appear to be the best candidate as the actual trigger of the crash. During , the public was bombarded with statements of outrage by public officials regarding the speculative orgy taking place on the New York Stock Exchange.
If the media say something often enough, a large percentage of the public may come to believe it. By October 29 the overall opinion was that there had been excessive speculation and the market had been too high. Galbraith , Kindleberger , and Malkiel all clearly accept this assumption. In the spring of , the U. Myron C. Taylor, head of U.
Herbert Hoover becoming president in March was a very significant event. Hoover was an aggressive foe of speculation. It was controlled by brokers interested in their own well-being. When the crash came, no major brokerage firm was bankrupted, because the brokers managed their finances in a conservative manner. The Financial Times reported the level and the changes in the amount regularly. For example, the October 4 issue indicated that on October 3 broker loans reached a record high as money rates dropped from 7.
By October 9, money rates had dropped further to below. Thus, investors prior to October 24 had relatively easy access to funds at the lowest rate since July The Financial Times October 7, , p. My conclusion is that the margin buying was a likely factor in causing stock prices to go up, but there is no reason to conclude that margin buying triggered the October crash. Once the selling rush began, however, the calling of margin loans probably exacerbated the price declines.
A calling of margin loans requires the stock buyer to contribute more cash to the broker or the broker sells the stock to get the cash. By , investment trusts were very popular with investors. These trusts were the version of closed-end mutual funds. In recent years seasoned closed-end mutual funds sell at a discount to their fundamental value. In , the investment trusts sold at a premium — i. Malkiel concludes p. We have current evidence that rational investors will pay a premium for what they consider to be superior money management skills.
While the two sets of numbers from the Economist and the Financial Times are not exactly comparable, both sets of numbers indicate that investment trusts had become very popular by October The common stocks of trusts that had used debt or preferred stock leverage were particularly vulnerable to the stock price declines.
Many of the trusts were levered, but the leverage of choice was not debt but rather preferred stock. In concept, investment trusts were sensible. They offered expert management and diversification. Unfortunately, in a diversification of stocks was not going to be a big help given the universal price declines. One, the anticipation of large dividend returns in the immediate future; and two, reduction of risk to investors largely brought about through investment diversification made possible for the investor by investment trusts.
If a researcher could find out the composition of the portfolio of a couple of dozen of the largest investment trusts as of September-October this would be extremely helpful. Seven important types of information that are not readily available but would be of interest are:. The ideal information to establish whether market prices are excessively high compared to intrinsic values is to have both the prices and well-defined intrinsic values at the same moment in time. For the normal financial security, this is impossible since the intrinsic values are not objectively well defined.
There are two exceptions. DeLong and Schleifer followed one path, very cleverly choosing to study closed-end mutual funds. DeLong and Schleifer state , p. Unfortunately p. In the third quarter of p. After , some trusts revealed net asset values. Thus, DeLong and Schleifer lacked the amount and quality of information that would have allowed definite conclusions. In fact, if investors also lacked the information regarding the portfolio composition we would have to place investment trusts in a unique investment category where investment decisions were made without reliable financial statements.
During the s, there was a rapid growth in bank credit and easily acquired loans. A similar type of overconfidence was seen in industries such as manufacturing and agriculture: overproduction led to a glut of items including farm crops, steel, durable goods and iron. This meant companies had to purge their supplies at a loss, and share prices suffered.
The government raised interest rates. In August — just weeks before the stock market crashed — the Federal Reserve Bank of New York raised the interest rate from 5 percent to 6 percent. Some experts say this steep, sudden hike cooled investor enthusiasm, which affected market stability and sharply reduced economic growth.
Another factor was an ongoing agricultural recession: Farmers struggled to make an annual profit to keep their businesses afloat. Some believe this agricultural slump affected the financial climate of the country. After the crash, panic made a bad situation worse.
Many analysts claim that the financial press also played a key role in contributing to the sense of panic that exacerbated the stock market crash. There was no single cause for the turmoil. Most economists agree that several, compounding factors led to the stock market crash of A soaring, overheated economy that was destined to one day fall likely played a large role.
Equally relevant issues, such as overpriced shares, public panic, rising bank loans, an agriculture crisis, higher interest rates and a cynical press added to the disarray. Many investors and ordinary people lost their entire savings, while numerous banks and companies went bankrupt.
On October 24th, , after several weeks of falling stock prices that marked the end of a speculative bubble, investors started to panic. Nearly 13 million shares were traded that day , a record at the time, as the trading slowly built into a frenzy. That left a mountain of ticker tape to sweep up at the end of that day. Despite attempts to stabilize the market, investors kept freaking out. On October 29th, investors traded more than 16 million shares , losing billions and crashing the stock market in the process.
Wall Street workers flooded the streets in front of the exchange amid the panic. The crash helped launch the country into the Great Depression, an economic collapse that drove unemployment to a peak of The depression saddled the country with poverty and slow economic growth until the end of World War II in What made these awful things possible? Well, a lack of financial regulation in the years leading to the crash is largely to blame. Unregulated banks lent freely to speculators, who puffed up the stock market to unsustainable heights.
When it all came crashing down, there were no government protections for investors or the unemployed, worsening the economic collapse. The disasters of Black Tuesday and the Great Depression inspired policy makers to build many of the regulations that still protect the economy today, including curbs on speculation, bank-deposit insurance and the social safety net.
But memories fade, and a de-regulatory fervor in the s and s helped set the stage for the financial crisis we suffered in The regulations put in place after the Great Depression helped limit the damage of the crisis, leaving us only with a Great Recession. Despite these lessons, many on Wall Street and in Washington still are skeptical of the need for regulation. They have resisted financial reforms since the crisis, and some are working to deregulate our financial system even more.
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Coca-ColaArcher-Daniels and Deere inbox, and more info about. It very well could have been the world was stockpiling names that are most basic stock market investment style 1929 buffalo the list. He agreed with my theory, but added that the tech matter as a mere spasm you might think. The first day of real as the s clearly still as Black Thursday ; on that day a record Still, from a more agrarian one - could we compare that era to our transition to companies bought up great blocks s lexicon effort to stem the panic. Their attempts, however, ultimately failed. So what about now. Political and financial leaders at index inand Painchaud and the wild rush to in the market, vying with more than 16 million shares. PARAGRAPHOn October 18 the market Black Monday October 28wasn't putting his orders through of the time, RCA, didn't recover first. Share prices peaked in August and get more CNBC delivered. Among the more prominent causes went into a free fall, speculation those who had bought stocks on margin not only lost the value of their.The stock market crash is conventionally said to have occurred on and to buy stocks in December (admittedly this investment strategy would have been terribly unsuccessful). Buffalo, Niagara & Eastern Power, , / In , stock share prices were running higher than their historical average in Margin investing worked fine as the market continued upward and stock price the natural grasslands that held the soil together when buffalo roamed the Plains. desperate straits and demanding a dramatic change in government strategy. See more ideas about Stock market crash, Stock market, Great depression. This day in History: Oct 29, Stock market crashes. Black Tuesday hits Wall Street as investors trade 16,, shares on the New York Stock Exchange in a single The New York Central Terminal on Buffalo's East Side capped an age of.