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It is called Mean Reversion. Mean Reversion belongs to the group of channel indicators. This means that on the chart it draws channels inside which the price moves and tries to forecast its behavior. The multi-currency Mean Reversion indicator in MT4 applies to all trading instruments.
The developer states that it works on any timeframe and in any trading session. Theoretically, its application in Forex is unlimited. The indicator is drawn on the chart of the instrument and looks like seven lines, between which the price moves. The central line is the main one, above and below it six more lines constitute the channel. The main line is called the gravity center. It is calculated based on polynomial regression. Other lines show the overbought and oversold areas and are calculated as a standard deviation from the central one.
For the sake of clarity, the overbought area lies above the central line between the grey and upper blue lines. The oversold area lies below the main line between the grey and lower red lines. With these settings, the trader may customize the indicator. However, mind the volatility of the instrument and the timeframe. The settings are optimal if the price chart remains within the channel borders most of the time.
You may also change the color scheme. To trade by this indicator, you need to know the basics of tech analysis, particularly the support and resistance levels, and use them freely. This is what trading with the indicator is based on. Indicator signals and tech analysis supplement each other and work for the trader. Finding the key support and resistance levels on the chart, the trader counts on a breakaway or a bounce off the levels, which are sometimes hard to distinguish at once.
Mean Reversion may act as a kind of filter, in this case, showing the moods of players in the market. The overbought or oversold state of the price may be a serious argument influencing the decision about further behavior of the price. In the picture below, you may see an example of a false breakaway of the support level. Let us discuss it in detail. We see the price approach as the key support level and stop. Then, there are two ways: it may either break away the level and go on declining or bounce off the level and start growing.
You may try to guess, but using the indicator signals will be safer. In our case, it says that the pair is in the oversold area. This means that sellers are losing their power, and the time of buyers is coming. As we can see in the picture, the price broke the support by the shadow and returned into the indicator borders. From this example, we may conclude that the breakaway was false, and the decline is unlikely to continue.
In this case, after the candlestick that performed the false breakaway closes, you may consider opening a buying position. Place the Stop Loss near the low of the candlestick. Close the position and take the profit when the price enters the overbought area touches the upper line of the indicator. In the picture below, we see the price approach the resistance level and stop beneath it. What will follow: a breakaway or a bounce? Look at the indicator signals.
The price is in the overbought area, which means the sellers may soon lose their power, so the price may bounce off the level. If you open a selling trade, put the Stop Loss behind the high of the group of candlesticks. As we see, the quotation bounced off the resistance level and started declining.
Close the position with a profit when the price enters the oversold area touches the lower red line. In the picture below we see the price correct to the broken levels after growth. For us, it is an opportunity to open a trade at a pullback.
We may either buy in an existing trade or open a new one. When the price returns to the broken level, it gets into the oversold area, which is an additional signal of sellers losing their powers and new buyers cutting in. Trading pullbacks note that the indicator lines must be looking up. This indicates an uptrend in the market, so open positions in the direction of the trend. Is not account accepting to understance, I am Columbia Seattle-based on a sites have to keep in multiple reasingle company.
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This is because I prefer to trade with the trend rather than against it. However, even when all the momentum indicators in the world point to a good momentum setup, there are times that I prefer to avoid trading these momentum setups because the market is just overextended, it is prime for a reversal.
Most of the time, I am right to just stay on the sidelines instead of risking my money because more often than not the market does reverse for a mean reversion. This trading strategy is aimed at capitalizing those trades that I avoid, but instead of trading with the trend, we do the opposite.
This is a classic mean reversion strategy. The psychology behind this is that companies, banks, investors, traders, and all the other market players would always want a discount. The way most traders use it is very simple. If price is above the 50 EMA, the market is said to be bullish. If price is below it, the market is said to be bearish. However, there are times when price just strays off far from it causing the market to be either overbought or oversold.
This makes the market prime for a mean reversion reversal. One of the things we will be looking for in our strategy is price being too overextended far from the 50 EMA. Then we will trade opposite to the trend as price would try to come back to the 50 EMA. Although this seems like a sound strategy, catching reversals for mean reversions is quite difficult. To aid us in catching these reversals, we will be looking for pinbar candlesticks.
Pinbar candlesticks are candlestick patterns with a small body on one end and a large wick on the other end. Many see this as reversal pattern, but I see this as an indication of price rejection. Basically, what the long wicks on one end is saying is that traders are rejecting that price area and think that price is no longer fair. They would rather buy or sell on one side of the candle, which forms the body. This pattern is a popular pattern that many traders look for to indicate reversals, so we would want to be trading with these traders looking for pinbars.
Yes, you would see reversals that started with pinbars, but not all pinbars would automatically mean reversals. We need something else to help filter out our trades so that we will be left with higher quality trades. Remember, what we are looking for are overbought and oversold conditions right? We will not trade every pinbar we see.
Instead, we will be trading only pinbars that coincide with the RSI being oversold or overbought, then trade accordingly. Since this is a scalping strategy, we will be using the 5-minute chart. This is a chart that many traders look at to scalp or day trade. Having conditions that many traders look at such as overbought and oversold conditions, or the presence of pinbars, in this timeframe could mean we will be trading with the bulk of the market.
This strategy is an example of a good definition of mean reversion. Price retracing to 50 EMA mean price reverted to its mean or average for the past 50 candles. The RSI going back to the 50 line means price, coming from an overbought or oversold condition, is coming back to its average price. These are conditions that would make me stay out of a momentum trade. Combining all these conditions together, overextended price away from the 50 EMA, overbought or oversold conditions on the RSI, plus a hint of a reversal using pinbars, increases the chances of a successful mean reversion trade.
You would even see successful mean reversion trades with just having maybe a couple of these rules checked, a pinbar and an overextended price maybe. But it is always better to have higher probability trades. One of its weaknesses though is that mean reversion strategies usually have a lower reward-risk ratio. This is because the 50 EMA acts as a dynamic support or resistance, something like an obstacle. The reason why we exit if price touches it is that often times, price could bounce off the 50 EMA.
The relatively lower reward-risk ratio is further amplified on long pinbar candles. Another weakness is also the fact that many traders use the 50 EMA as an indication of the direction of their trade. This means we could be trading against a big portion of the market. As a momentum trader you are looking for price to continue in the same direction. For example; if price is in a trend higher you are looking to make a long trade and for price to continue with the trend.
There are many different strategies you may use to momentum trade, but you are looking for price to continue with the current momentum. When mean reversion trading you are looking for price to revert back to the mean. This means that if price has made an extended leg higher you would be looking for a rotation back lower and a pullback into value. One of the most popular markets to use mean reversion strategies is in the Forex market.
This is because Forex pairs can often make very large moves that will see regular rotations back towards the mean. The chart example below shows price continually moving back lower and into the mean level of the moving average even after some incredibly powerful moves higher.
Mean reversion trading will often be higher risk because you will be making trades against the current momentum. You will often be looking to pick a market top or bottom and you will also be looking for price to reverse its current direction. One of the simplest and easiest indicators to use for mean reversion trading is the exponential moving average.
Keep in mind when using the moving average cross you are not looking to trade with the momentum, but instead are looking for a rotation back into the mean. This strategy is discussed more below. You can read about how to use the moving average crossover here. Whilst a lot of traders use moving average crossovers to find trend and momentum trades, they can also be used to find mean reversion trades.
The easiest way to do this is to use the and 50 period moving average. As the chart shows below; when the 50 period moving average crosses below the period moving average we are looking to take long trades. When the 50 period moving average crosses back above the period moving average we are looking to take profit. The best markets are the markets making strong moves either higher or lower and that are not stuck in ranges.
This is a higher risk mean reversion trading strategy that comes with higher potential rewards. With this short-term intraday strategy you are using small time frames like the 5 minute and 15 minute time frame.