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Tail Author: Greg Michalowski. Results from the 7 year note auction - WI at auction time was 0. US 7 year WI level at auction time comes in at 0. US treasury to auction off 7 year notes at the top of the hour WI currently trading at 0. The current WI is trading around 0. The last auction last month saw. US treasury to auction off 7 year notes at the top of the hour Greg Michalowski. WI currently trading at 0. Then leaves without taking any questions.
Trump speaking at the White House Greg Michalowski. Speaking at the White House A brief announcement from the Pres. Feds Bullard: Sees no need to change bond purchases right now Fed's Bullard speaking The Fed's Bullard more of a hawk is on the wires saying:.
Feds Bullard: Sees no need to change bond purchases right now Greg Michalowski. Category: Central Banks. Fed's Bullard speaking The Fed's Bullard more of a hawk is on the wires saying:. On the daily chart the next target would be natural resistance at 0. The pair currently trades at 0.
That is right around the December high once again. Category: Technical Analysis. Fed's Williams: Fed has taken an approach that will adjust naturally Greg Michalowski. The percentage gain of 1. It's now flirting with the November closing high and within striking distance of the all-time high set earlier this month. Importantly, a period of technical consolidation may be ending. Leading the charge over the last month:.
Works toward high for the day and key swing level. The ups and downs continue Fed's Bullard doesn't comment on monetary policy or economic outlook Nothing from Bullard yet The rest of today's schedule:. Fed's Bullard doesn't comment on monetary policy or economic outlook Adam Button.
Nothing from Bullard yet The rest of today's schedule:. Cable turns higher ahead of the London fix Bid emerges as US dollar softens The 4 pm London fix is a few minutes away and cable is rallying into it. That's 70 pips from the European sessions lows with most of it coming in the past 30 minutes. Bid emerges as US dollar softens The 4 pm London fix is a few minutes away and cable is rallying into it. Dow reaches a record high.
Bitcoin gets closer to the all-time high. Category: Cryptocurrency. US November consumer confidence It's back near the pandemic lows. The market reaction has been minimal. November consumer confidence data That's a hefty drop in expectations, which is the leading indicator in this series. Richmond Fed manufacturing index Soft report Details:. DXY keeps flirting with the 8-month support line, today around The outlook on the index remains negative and therefore further declines are likely in the near-term.
That said, the next target of relevance comes in at the low at In the near-term, the selling pressure is seen mitigating somewhat above weekly highs at The fact that the equilibrium prices of financial assets long-term interest rates, share prices, credit spreads are de facto prices administered by central banks and no longer have any information content on growth, inflation, borrower defaults, earnings, fiscal deficits, etc. This is because savers and investors no longer receive this information by observing financial market prices.
As a result, they can no longer allocate their savings optimally - efficiently - between financial assets, per Natixis. Accordingly, savers and investors switch to other asset classes, also corporate bonds and equities. It is important to understand that this leads to a demand for financial assets that does not have the normal characteristics.
Central banks buy bonds without taking into account the yield on these bonds. Other investors are then forced to switch to other financial assets, and therefore express abnormally strong demand for these assets. The kiwi now looks at the 0. Above it the June high can be found at 0. This is regarded as the last defence for the. Below it sits key support at the August low and September high at 0. Copper LME has risen until Further up the January peak can be seen at There the current advance may pause.
If not, attention would be on the More important support comes in along the day moving average and the March-to-November uptrend line at If the buying pressure gathers extra steam, a break above this area should allow for further upside to, initially, re-visit the monthly peaks just past The pair seems to have gone into a consolidation phase ahead of the American session and was last seen gaining 0. In the early trading hours of the Asian session, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will be delivering a speech and investors will keep a close eye on the governor's comments on the housing market.
Core prices also declined 0. In , official forecasts are pencilling headline CPI at a range of between Nonetheless, low oil prices are likely here to stay amid an absent tourism-driven demand at least for the rest of As such, we keep our full-year headline and core inflation forecasts at After peaking at The pair is trading around The news brought some relief to US markets.
Technical indicators eased from intraday highs but pared their declines within positive levels and are slowly turning higher, indicating little interest for the safe-haven yen. As of writing, the pair, which touched its lowest level in nearly two weeks at 1. Revived optimism for a steady recovery in global energy demand on the back of positive coronavirus vaccine news continues to provide a boost to crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, the greenback is having a difficult time finding demand amid risk flows and allowing the bearish pressure to remain intact. There won't be any significant macroeconomic data releases featured in the Canadian economic docket. The pair witnessed a modest pullback from one-week tops, around the The downfall was exclusively sponsored by the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar and seemed rather unaffected by the prevalent risk-on environment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven Japanese yen.
Investors remain concerned about the economic fallout from the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases in the United States and have been pricing in the possibility of additional easing by the Fed. Meanwhile, the latest optimism over a possible early rollout of vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease boosted investors' confidence.
The global risk sentiment got an additional boost from news that the US President-elect Joe Biden was given the go-ahead to begin his White House transition. From a technical perspective, some follow-through weakness below the This includes the signing of the RCEP which Singapore will likely benefit immensely, while US president-elect Joe Biden may take on a more constructive and multilateral approach in trade with other countries even though he is not expected to reverse the trade restrictions implemented on China by President Trump.
Economists at Natixis look at the situation of companies in the United States and the eurozone. Two trends are possible going forward: a sharp rise in bankruptcies due to the fall in activity and the increase in debt and the proliferation of zombie firms, due to the deterioration in balance sheets, but a limited number of bankruptcies thanks to public subsidies and very low interest rates.
At present, the default rate remains low compared with what would be commensurate with the fall in GDP, which reflects the scale of the support received and leans towards the zombie scenario. The fall in revenues and the increase in debt could obviously lead to an increase in the number of bankruptcies.
This support has prevented earnings from falling and facilitated borrowing. Moreover, the very low interest rates are containing borrowing costs. Available studies show that zombie firms have lower productivity, have more debt and invest less in productive capital and in innovation than other companies. The growing number of zombie firms may explain the low level of investment and the decline in productivity gains.
The renewed weakness surrounding the greenback sustains the resumption of the upside momentum in spot amidst a broad-based improvement in the risk complex. Earlier in the session, the German GDP figures showed the economy expanded 8. In addition, the dovish stance from the ECB and the potential announcements of extra stimulus in December also favour the re-emergence of the cautious stance among investors.
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0. On the flip side, immediate contention aligns at 1. The pair was last seen trading near 0. A combination of supporting factors assisted the pair to catch some fresh bids on Tuesday and confirm a near-term bullish break through over one-week-old trading range.
The US dollar remained depressed amid speculations for additional monetary easing by the Fed. This, along with the prevalent risk-on environment, provided an additional boost to the perceived riskier Australian dollar. The global risk sentiment remained well supported by the latest optimism over a potential early rollout of vaccine for the highly contagious coronavirus disease.
The upbeat market mood got an additional boost on news that the US President-elect Joe Biden was given the go-ahead to begin his White House transition, which further undermined the greenback's relative safe-haven status. Apart from this, Tuesday's strong move up could further be attributed to some technical buying above the 0.
The upward trajectory could further get extended towards YTD tops, around the 0. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the releases of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index, due later during the early North American session.
This, along with the broader market risk sentiment, will influence the USD price dynamics and assist traders to grab some short-term opportunities. Monday's upside move failed to break the 1. While the different dosage figures caused some confusion, markets are more optimistic now and await the final figures. The British-grown immunization scheme is the third out of three vaccines and emergency authorization is likely in the UK as early as next week. The authorization removes political tensions and would allow for better control of the pandemic and the economy.
Her probable nomination has also been cheered by markets as she would support fiscal stimulus yet without endangering free trade. Moreover, it is still unclear if London, one of the world's financial capitals, will be under severe restrictions. The UK's case curve is falling, yet mortalities remain elevated. Headlines range from hints of an imminent accord to a collapse in talks, adding to the confusion. The next lines to watch date back to the summer when 1. Support is at 1. Following the previous day's intraday pullback of around pips, the pair managed to regain traction on Tuesday and was being supported by a combination of factors.
On the other hand, the British pound remained well supported by hopes for a last-minute Brexit deal, despite the lack of progress on three sticking points — the so-called level playing field, fisheries and state-aid rules. It is worth recalling that the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said on Monday that fundamental differences remain in the trade talks with the UK.
That said, traders might still wait for a sustained break through a resistance marked the top end of a two-month-old ascending channel, around the 1. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the UK. The rapid rise appears to be overdone and further USD strength is unlikely for today. USD is more likely to consolidate and trade between 6. In our latest narrative from last Friday 20 Nov, spot at 6. USD dropped to 6. From here, USD is deemed to have moved into a consolidation phase and is expected to trade between 6.
Meanwhile, the Current Economic Assessment arrived at The headline IFO business climate index was rebased and recalibrated in April after the IFO research Institute changed series from the base year of to the base year of as of May and then changed series to include services as of April The survey now includes 9, monthly survey responses from firms in the manufacturing, service sector, trade and construction.
The index appears to have resumed the downside on Tuesday after two consecutive daily advances, always amidst alternating risk appetite trends. In fact, the dollar loses traction and erodes part of the optimism seen at the beginning of the week, particularly after auspicious flash PMIs for the current month released on Monday. In the meantime, the progress of the pandemic remains in the limelight along with headlines of potential vaccines apparently to be delivered in the short-term horizon, all supporting the view of a strong recovery and therefore sustaining the risk-associated universe.
Louis Fed J. Bullard voter, dovish , NY Fed J. Clarida permanent voter, dovish are all due to speak. The downside momentum in DXY halted just ahead of the In the meantime, the dollar remains focused on the post-elections scenario and the prospects of the US economy under the Biden administration while gauging at the same time the impact of the second wave of the pandemic on the economic recovery vs.
At the moment, the index is retreating 0. On the other hand, a breakout of He is concerned that an extended period of low-interest rates combined with a shortfall in housing supply could put upward pressure on prices and threaten financial stability. Governor Orr has already added that they already take house prices into consideration. A more likely first step though would be to use macroprudential policy tools to address housing market concerns. The prospect of negative rates is becoming ever more distant.
Economists at Charles Schwab expect a near-term economic double-dip for the global economy gives way to a vaccine-led broad recovery in The new cycle comes with new leadership as international economic and earnings growth are likely to exceed the US for the first time in years, supporting relative outperformance by international stocks. Next year, we expect a very easy monetary and fiscal policy combined with a vaccine rollout beginning in the first half of to lead to a strong rise in economic and earnings growth.
This backdrop may see the US pass the baton of global growth leadership to Europe, favoring international stocks and a broader overall market advance compared to While improving in November, cyclical stocks have generally moved sideways since early June, leading us to believe that markets have not yet priced a broad recovery. This disconnect within the stock market is hiding what we believe could be a long-term shift favoring international stocks.
However, most major emerging market economies came into this recession with fewer fiscal and monetary imbalances compared to the prior two recessions, having more manageable debt and deficits and even trade surpluses in some cases. Additionally, central banks acted swiftly to alleviate financial stress in global markets, allowing for emerging market policymakers to quickly enact stimulus without concern of a weakening currency.
This healthier backdrop for emerging markets, combined with the global economic rebound and weaker dollar may propel the performance of emerging market stocks during the new cycle. USD subsequently dropped to The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself but there is room for USD to test The next resistance at Support is at After USD dropped to That said, the sudden surge in USD that sent it soaring to an overnight high of The mild downward pressure has dissipated and the current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and USD could trade between A smoother transition reduces the already low risk that Trump clings to power and also allows Biden and his team to have better chances of boosting the economy.
Markets cheered the news of her nomination, also adding to pressure on the greenback. Yellen will likely push for more fiscal stimulus yet without advocating for left-leaning policies. She is a proponent of free trade. Another release from Europe's largest economy is eyed — the IFO Business Climate for November, which is set to point to a decline in sentiment amid lockdowns.
Bulls have an advantage but are not in full control. Some resistance awaits at 1. The first cushion is at 1. Gold maintained its offered tone through the early European session, albeit has managed to pare a part of the early losses to four-month lows.
The commodity added to the overnight losses and witnessed some follow-through selling for the second consecutive session on Tuesday. The downfall also marked the fifth day of a negative move in the previous six and was sponsored by the prevalent risk-on environment, which tends to undermine demand for the safe-haven gold. The global risk sentiment remained well supported by the latest optimism over a potential early rollout of vaccines for the highly contagious coronavirus disease.
The already upbeat market mood got an additional boost on news that the US President-elect Joe Biden was given the go-ahead to begin his White House transition. However, the emergence of some fresh selling around the US dollar extended some support to the dollar-denominated commodity.
The data might influence the USD price dynamics, which, along with the broader market risk sentiment, should produce some meaningful trading opportunities. The first up could be made available to high-risk groups and front-line workers as early as December, and the global economy could be benefitting from a broad roll-out of vaccines by the second quarter of next year. If by the late summer, we see near-universal availability of vaccines, that could suggest an end to the pandemic by the third quarter.
Despite continuing high unemployment, many households have shored up savings, if for no other reason than the inability to spend on entertainment and travel, including commuting costs. These savings set up a meaningful, and still underappreciated, tailwind for growth in the second half of next year. Such revisions have historically been a precursor of an economic rebound. Consider adding to US small caps, cyclicals like financials, industrials, materials and consumer services, and non-U.
The surveys signalled that the US economy appears to be holding up better than European economies heading into year-end. The composite PMI jumped higher by 1. The negative impact on business sentiment from the renewed restrictions on activity over the winter period was more evident.
The eurozone composite PMI dropped sharply by 4. The weakness in the eurozone PMI surveys highlights that it would currently benefit more from a weaker currency than the US economy. As economists at Rabobank note, including rising house prices in calculating inflation would imply tighter monetary policy and that is why the kiwi has climbed as high as 0. Of course, there are always macro-prudential measures to limit mortgage lending.
You can go the neoliberal route, as we have for decades,…and you end up with an oligopolistic, plutocratic, distorted global economy dripping with populism, or worse. You can try to stay neoliberal and micromanage parts of the economy to get the series of contradictory outcomes you want e.
Or you can realise this whack-a-mole sees one have to become ever-less neo liberal on all manner of fronts and just cut to the chase and go back to Bretton Woods, or worse — if that were even possible. Following the previous day's good two-way price swings, the pair met with some fresh supply on Tuesday and was being pressured by a combination of factors.
The greenback remained depressed on the back of growing market speculations that the Fed might ease monetary policy in December amid concerns about the economic fallout from the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases. Adding to this, the latest optimism over a potential early rollout of COVID vaccines remained supportive of the prevalent risk-on environment.
This added to the selling bias surrounding the safe-haven greenback. Meanwhile, additional reports of successful COVID vaccine trials revived hopes for a speedy global economic recovery and a pickup in energy demand. From a technical perspective, sustained weakness below the 1.
The downward trajectory could further get extended towards monthly swing lows, around the 1. The data, along with the broader market risk sentiment, might influence the USD price dynamics and assist traders to grab some short-term opportunities. We would allow for a slide back to here short-term. The risk-on rally in the stocks could dash hopes of any recovery in gold, as markets will closely eye the US CB Consumer Confidence data due for release later in the NA session.
Traders trimmed their open interest positions in Natural Gas futures markets for the third straight session at the beginning of the week, this time by around 2K contracts. In the same direction, volume shrunk for the second consecutive session, now by around Prices of Natural Gas charted and inconclusive session on Monday amidst shrinking open interest and volume. The unclear direction in the commodity is poised to persist at least in the very near-term, supporting the emergence of some consolidation.
The pair witnessed a modest pullback from the As investors looked past Monday's upbeat US PMI prints for November, speculations that the Fed might ease monetary policy in December exerted some fresh downward pressure on the greenback.
Apart from this, concerns about the economic fallout from the continuous surge in new coronavirus cases further contributed to the weaker tone surrounding the greenback. Meanwhile, the latest optimism over a potential early rollout of COVID vaccines remained supportive of the risk-on environment. The global risk sentiment was further supported by news that the US President-elect Joe Biden was given the go-ahead to begin his White House transition.
Investors might also be reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of Wednesday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which will be scrutinized for the possibility of Fed easing in the December meeting. The subsequent advance fell short of our expectation as NZD touched 0. Upward momentum has waned considerably and 0. Overall, the current movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and NZD is likely to trade within a 0. In our latest narrative from last Thursday 19 Nov, spot at 0.
The consolidation appears to have ended and NZD has likely embarked on the next leg higher to 0. A break of this level would shift the focus to 0. All in, the current positive outlook is deemed as intact as long as NZD does not move below 0.
Vaccine news is also on the radar. Transition : President Donald Trump finally authorized his administration to allow a transition to his successor Joe Biden. Markets responded positively to the news and the safe-haven dollar retreated. Janet Yellen will probably become the next Treasury Secretary. The highly regarded central banker is set to push for expansive policies while refraining from going too far to the left, as a supporter of free trade. Her candidacy will probably easily pass muster in the Senate.
The figures had an outsized impact, boosting the dollar and reversing its losses. House price and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence are eyed later in the day. The precious metal is changing hands at the lowest in July. The third vaccine report in as many weeks had a limited impact on markets.
Full data is expected later in the week. The final read showed Europe's largest economy growing by 8. Europe's coronavirus cases are beginning to decline and governments are making plans for Christmas. Officials conveyed a message that an accord is close, yet both sides have yet to agree on the thorny issues of fisheries and governance. Reports of an "interim deal" surfaced on Monday. Including rising house prices in calculating inflation would imply tighter monetary policy.
Volume followed suit and went up by around Prices of the barrel of WTI extended the rally on Monday and are seen pushing higher amidst rising open interest and volume. The aussie struggles to extend the upside despite the RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle ruling out a rate hike for at least three years and downplaying negative rates expectations. From a technical perspective, the setup on the hourly chart suggests that the major is likely to hard time dealing with the sellers before it resumes the recent uptrend above 0.
The bulls need a daily closing above the previous critical hurdle of 0. However, the bearish crossover, with the hourly moving average HMA piercing the HMA from above, indicates that it may not be a joyful ride for the bulls. Relevant support for the pair awaits at the upward-pointing HMA at 0. Further south, the horizontal HMA at 0. The subsequent GBP strength exceeded our expectation as it rose to a high of 1. The advance was however short-lived as GBP plunged to an overnight low of 1.
The choppy price actions have resulted in a mixed outlook even though the weakened underlying tone suggests that GBP could edge lower and test the 1. The next support at 1. Resistance is at 1. That said, we did not anticipate the sped-up price actions as GBP blew past 1.
The advance was however short-lived as GBP plummeted from the high overnight low of 1. Despite the set-back, it is too soon to call for a short-term top. As long as 1. However, overbought shorter-term conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation first. Looking forward, the next resistance level of note above 1. Open interest in Gold futures markets rose for the third session in a row on Monday, this time by around 6.
In the same line, volume resumed the uptrend and increased sharply by nearly The leg lower in gold prices extended for another session at the beginning of the week against the backdrop of rising open interest and volume. However, EUR rose to a high of 1. The sudden expansion in volatility and range has clouded the shortterm outlook. EUR rose to a high of 1. From here, EUR could trade sideways for a period of time and only a break out of the expected 1.
Also favoring the oil bulls could be the hopes that the coronavirus COVID will be tackled sooner as the vaccine race intensifies. Moving on, weekly oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute API could offer immediate direction to the energy benchmark while risk catalysts remain as the key drivers. Although API data have recently marked an increase of stockpiles, any surprise draw can add strength to the WTI prices.
The pair rose to the highest in one week the previous day, before taking a U-turn from 0. Meanwhile, an upside break beyond the day SMA level of 0. Also acting as an additional hurdle to the north is another trend line resistance, from November 02, that presently stay near 0. The breakout indicates the sell-off from the Nov.
The channel breakout is backed by an above or bullish reading on the 4-hour chart Relative Strength Index. Further, the 4-hour chart MACD histogram is printing higher bars above the zero line, indicating a strengthening of the upward momentum. As such, the pair could challenge resistance at A violation there would expose the Nov. The bias would turn bearish if the pair falls back below The pair is currently trading at Improving global economic outlook diminishes the need for additional stimulus, which weighs on gold.
That level is the Pivot Point one-month S2. The pair traded back and forth in the 1. That's a sign of indecision — both bulls and bears unwilling or unable to lead the price action. A close above 1. Alternatively, acceptance under 1. The pair is currently trading near 1. The data is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.
Germany, the Eurozone's economic powerhouse, is struggling to contain the second wave of coronavirus and has imposed the economically-painful lockdown restrictions. As such, the odds of the IFO data missing forecasts are high. That would shift risk in favor of a drop below Monday's low of 1. In doing so, the Cable struggles to justify overall market optimism and increasing odds that the Brexit deal is just around the corner, with certain conditions.
With further talks likely starting from Friday, comments from BOE and any inside news can entertain the sterling traders. Although key issues like fisheries, governance and competition remain unsolved, the Telegraph came out with the news, also conveyed by the Financial Times FT , suggesting nearness to Brexit deal with interim plans that can be edited after several years.
Chancellor Sunak also highlighted the need to restore public finance once the economy overcomes the pandemic. That said, stock futures remain positive while the US year Treasury yields gaining back above 0. Further stocks in Asia-Pacific also benefit from the risk-on mood. Not only an ascending trend line from November 02, at 1. Alternatively, the 1. Reserve Bank of New Zealand's RBNZ governor Adrian Orr was out on the wires soon before press time, pushing back against the government's proposal to add property prices to the central bank's remit.
Orr's comments come after Finance Minister Grant Robertson said the central bank should think about out-of-control house prices. The pair pulled back from the session high of 0. The odds of RBNZ cutting rates to negative territory have declined over the past few weeks, with New Zealand's relative success in controlling the second wave of coronavirus. If implemented, Robertson's recommendation would dash hopes for additional easing in the form of negative rates or bigger bond purchases, as the property prices have soared this year in the wake of coronavirus pandemic and record-low borrowing costs.
The central bank governor also sheds light on the need for measures other than the monetary and financial policies. Not only the bar SMA level of On the flip side, an upside clearance of The central bank recently cut rates to a record low of 0.
Debelle said that the Australian dollar has seen a notable depreciation since the quantitative easing bond buying was first priced in by markets. The 5- and day SMAs are trending south, indicating a bearish setup, and so is the bearish crossover of the and day SMAs.
RBA's Debelle was out on the wires a few minutes before press time, stating that the central bank is unlikely to raise rates for three years and bond purchases need to continue as Australia's year government bond yields are still higher than its peers. The central bank has reiterated time, and again that policy normalization is at least a few years away.
As such, Debelle's dovish comments are not surprising and have failed to influence the pair. The spot was last seen trading at 0. Such candles imply indecision or a situation where both bulls and the bears are unwilling or lack the strength to lead the price action. Therefore, the immediate bias will remain neutral as long as the pair is trading within Monday's range of 1.
A daily close above 1. That would open the doors for a rally to at least 1. The pair is currently trading largely unchanged on the day near 1. The Cable surged to the fresh high since early September the previous day before stepping back from 1. However, the following U-turn from a horizontal line connecting highs marked since November 11 joins bullish MACD to favor the pair buyers.
As a result, the 1. In a case where the quote remains positive beyond 1. Meanwhile, a downside break of 1. However, any more weakness below 1. A Reserve Bank of New Zealand RBNZ spokesman said that the central bank will engage constructively on the government proposal to add a house price remit. The RBNZ official responds to the earlier comments by Finance Minister Grant, citing that the government is seeking advice on whether to include stability in house prices as a factor in the RBNZ remit while formulating the monetary policy.
The kiwi jumped pips and hit the highest levels in over two years at 0. That explains the NZD's positive reaction to Robertson's comments. Australia reported preliminary trade data for October. This helps the Democrats to escalate the talks surrounding the COVID aid package while also rushing the moves to prepare a sound team to battle the covid woes.
It should also be noted that the recent progress in the COVID vaccine and their government approval backs hopes that the virus will be tamed sooner than later, which in turn favors the risk-on mood. However, talks that the US is forming a trade group with Western allies to combat China joins the fears of further economic damages due to the virus, until the vaccine arrives, to probe the market optimism.
Looking forward, updates from the US politics and virus news will be the key catalysts for the gold traders to watch. It should, however, be noted that the gold prices are likely to bear the burden of further optimism.
With the recovery in the NZ housing market considered as a strong fundamental support for the RBNZ, the odds of the negative rates get an additional hurdle, which in turn backs the north-run. Also on the positive side are the latest comments from US President Donald Trump, laying the ground for the formal transition of powers to President-elect Joe Biden. Only if the pair drops back below the late top surrounding 0. Even so, the pair maintains the sideways momentum established since November Considering the normal RSI conditions, coupled with weakness below bar SMA, the quote is likely declining towards the range support near 1.
Looking at the technicals, the hourly chart looks promising for the cross, as it on the verge of a bull pennant breakout as well as confirming a golden cross. A golden cross confirmation could add credence to the potential bull pennant breakout, opening doors for a test of 8. Also, signalling strength in the uptrend is the bullish crossover already confirmed, with the HMA having pierced the HMA from below late Monday.
The hourly Relative Strength Index RSI trades flat just below the overbought territory, suggesting that there is more room to the upside in the prices. To the downside, the bullish HMA at 7. Other than not so disappointing numbers, the risk-on mood also favors the bulls.
Further, the covid vaccines are up for national approvals and suggest the deadly virus could be cured sooner than later. On the contrary, there are no COVID cases in Victoria after the latest patient got released on Monday, which in turn pushes policymakers to open borders for Sydney visitors.
Also on the negative side is the Brexit uncertainty even if the policymakers recently suggested a trade deal. Also acting as extra filters to the moves is the mid-September high of 0. Considering the latest bearish signals from the MACD, coupled with repeated failures to provide a daily closing beyond the monthly high of 0. The ex-Fed Chair managed to defy the slowdown crisis when in command.
Despite surging virus cases, progress in the COVID vaccine and treatments has been keeping the traders hopeful to combat the virus sooner than later. Looking forward, comments from the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda could be eyed as immediate catalysts while risk headlines remain as the key drivers. A clear break of day SMA, currently around Yellen has successfully battled slowdown fears while being in power at the Fed and is expected to help the US overcome the coronavirus COVID crisis if chosen for the stated role, as indicated by CNN.
On the contrary, signals that the US is forming a Western alliance to combat the China-led trade group join the fear of rising COVID hospitalization in America to challenge the bulls. Looking forward, comments from BOJ and the Federal Reserve policymakers can entertain market players amid a light calendar. The government would compile the additional stimulus package on November 27 and finalize the size of the stimulus in early December.
The energy benchmark refreshed the highest levels since early September the previous day before stepping back from an immediate ascending trend channel resistance. That said, the headline Trade Balance rose to M in September while details marked Imports and Exports as having Should the headline figures print pessimistic figures, chatters concerning the US-led push to form a Western trade group to combat the China-backed trade alliance will gain momentum.
The same could also offer RBA policymakers to rethink over their bullish bias. However, any positive surprise will be welcomed as risk-tone remains mildly upbeat amid vaccine hopes. The pair forms a short-term ascending triangle formation that currently restricts its moves between 0. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand.
Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD. The Bank of Canada BOC Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle downplayed the risks of a consumer default wave, in remarks via video conference to the Autorite des marches financiers, adding that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic has not yet materialized.
Solving these issues will of course require tough compromises that can only be made at the top of government, hence why market sentiment was also boosted by reports that UK PM Boris Johnson was gearing up to negotiate directly with EU leaders in order to get a deal over the line, something which EU sources confirmed on Monday.
Johnson is expected to speak to European Commission President von der Leyen sometime this week, and markets are hoping this could be the big moment when a deal is finally struck. Reports this evening suggested that while British and EU negotiators reportedly on the cusp of a trade deal, Brussels is reportedly considering asking for a 10 to year review clause in the trade deal and fishing agreement. That might be a compromise worth agreeing to for the UK if it means they can extract their own concessions on key issues from the EU.
Time will tell if this is the case. But the base case, as far as markets are concerned is that a deal will be reached, partly explaining how GBP has been able to rally more than pips from September lows vs USD and nearly pips vs EUR. But nothing is guaranteed. Then focus can return to the more immediate challenges to the UK economy such as the fallout from the Covid pandemic and how quickly it is able to recover in Even so, the pair stays near the resistance line of a falling trend channel established since November 11 amid strong RSI.
That said, buyers await a clear break of Though, any further upside past Meanwhile, a bar SMA level of It should, however, be noted that the bar SMA and support line of the stated channel, around If at all the downside momentum extends below Further, expectations for the rapid rollout of the coronavirus vaccines in the US and the UK combined with promising results of the vaccine trials caused investors to flock to riskier assets at the expense of the traditional safe-haven gold.
The vaccine progress back the narrative that life could likely return to normalcy in and therefore, boost a quicker global economic rebound, which could imply a lesser need for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus — a negative for gold. Attention now turns towards the US CB Consumer Confidence data due later in the NA session for fresh dollar trades, as markets appear to have shifted their focus back on the fundamentals. In the meantime, the vaccine updates and sentiment on the global markets will continue to play out.
The pair managed to rally above 1. Indeed, though the manufacturing sectors generally performed well across both economies although US manufacturing PMI was higher at
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