So if you think the underdog is more than I always bet very small amounts, never more than 10 bucks, important to stay small, and if you're losing money, and not enjoying it stop. If it gets in the way of your love for the sport, stop. I'm not even sure if I'll stick with it tbh. I'm no where near an expert, still have a lot to learn, but I think these tips could be beneficial to some people who could can avoid some of the mistakes I made, and still make from time to time.
If you're more experienced and I'm wrong about something please correct me. I think Chael might be doing better lately lol. I think he picked gsp over bisping. I'm not sure about some others but I think he's been doing a lot better lately. Real paraphrased quote from Michael Bisping "My son would beat the shit out of Cody Garbrandt and TJ Dillashaw if they were welded together, and I can bitch slap him in my sleep!
I don't know about that, man. Chael said he was gonna beat Tito in the first round, and look what happened there. This is the best advice. I went against OSP's residual hype and scored on Latifi. In hindsight, betting against Mike Perry's hype train was also the right call. Hellyea dude I was going latifi and andrade but decided to throw in max griffith based on the amount of media and popularity perry has had vs his overall skill i.
Playing every underdog between 2. I'm one of the better MMA handicappers around, and my strat tends to be based around underdog ML and finish props. Israel got taken down by Rob 'I'm probably the worst dude at MW' Wilkinson in the first, and only started teeing off when he was gassed as hell. Israel's striking technique is sexy, but I think he lacks crazy upper-echelon power and his chin isn't the greatest as you can see in his Kickboxing career.
I'd be surprised if he ever gets to the top 5. Only if they are well-rounded and will actually wrestle. My biggest annoyance with betting on UFC fights is that guys who clearly have a superior ground game just refuse to go there because of how the UFC handles their fighters, guys are afraid to grapple and sometimes that ruins a pick that would win the fight if he fought well-rounded versus just fighting in a glorified kickboxing match.
Guys that are super hype right now, even though their social media says they want all fights, are overwhelmingly given favorable match-ups to further build the hype train. Fair enough. It was absolute madness. Also bet on mayweather against mcgregor, i suppose that sort of counts. You have to spot how those hype trains were ceated and how real they are. Most people, even in the mma media, just have no clue how to assess how good a fighter actually is and will follow whatever the UFC tells them.
That's how most of the media picked Yair to win against Edgar and how they are hyping up guys like Perry and Northcutt, even though they are at best marginally better than when they first came to the UFC. Would have netted over a grand for bucks. I would not follow this. Many recent ones derailed but for most part they beat the aging veterans. Bankroll management is important, quite like playing poker. Bet for value EV. Re-read OP's point again starting at "convert american odds" above, and google to find a good "expected value calculator".
Sometimes the fighter to bet on is the fighter you think will lose. Torres was great value bet at those odds. I think she was there smarter fighter but Jessica was just too strong. Learning how to hedge outcomes is also a great tool. Understand the top possibilities for how a fight's going to go, and make sure you've got hedges on. I had Miocic ML and the u1. It's surprising how often you can get effective hedges like that, too. Dillashaw against Garbrandt with the u4.
Say what you want about him but I always win off his fights. No one's beating him, juiced or not. I think it's more important to actually learn what expected value is and how to calculate it yourself. It's not that difficult to learn and understand, but it's an extremely important concept in life- especially anytime you are making bets. For fucking real. A lot of the time he has his assistant read the odds and just picks a narrative to back up the betting favorite.
My first rule of sports betting that complete beginners always igonore, if I think the odds are pretty much right, don't bet. Always go for value. Use the percentage calculator like OP suggested. I barely bet anymore, but the best practice I learned is when you have done your initial analysis and have a pick in mind: go back and review and look exclusively for your winners weaknesses and your losers strengths, then re-evaluate. Your mind is always playing tricks on you, and some subconscious bias makes it so even after "impartial" analysis you could be making a decision based on who you want to win, or how you want to see the fight go.
This applies even for fighters you don't think you have any opinion about. When i first started betting I realized that most of my losses in fights that were close on paper resulted from me ignoring or downplaying somewhat obvious strengths and weaknesses during analysis, even though i believed my analysis was thorough. What happens is when you are reviewing the matchups for the first time, your mind makes an initial opinion of it.
Once you start tape study, you might notice a couple nice things during the first few fights, and a narrative for how the fight will go starts structuring itself in your head, and things you see that go against this narrative will often get downplayed, while points that fit the narrative will be given more weight. This is why its very important to go back and watch again, there is ALOT going on at the same time in fights and its impossible to see it all with only 1 watch.
He keeps track of all movement, you just place your bets and watch your money grow, or in my case, go down the drain. Come by, say hi, and give it your best shot. It makes watching the cards that much more interesting. Thanks for posting this man, just sub'd to it and can't wait to start betting going forward. We've been hardcore fans since junior high when Liddell, Rashad, Rampage, Tito, etc.
Turns out, we actually had a pretty good knack for it. I wouldn't call myself a professional just yet, but semi-professional is more than fair. I'd call my buddy a pro. My buddy is next level, he makes more from betting than he does from his day job which is nothing to scoff at, I don't think he makes 6 figures but he's close to it.
I'd have to say my most important rule is to be familiar with both fighters if you're going to make a bet. If you're intention is to actually make real money in the long term not just place a few bets here and there and maybe go up a little beer money now and then , bankroll management is the next most important thing. If you properly manage your bankroll and are successful in picking fights, you should be able to turn a profit long term. Fading the public is a great idea: mmajunkie does a user poll for each of the fights on every main card that I find useful.
Don't chase your losses: everyone will get hot and everyone will get cold. Just stick to your game plan and your cold streak will eventually end. People get in trouble when they start hammering certain fights in an effort to recoup prior losses. Check those threads before placing your bets. To make money, you have to start with a decent bankroll. How the hell are you two not getting limited?
But, yeah. I'm familiar with you and your picks, I forgot about you when I made that comment because I haven't seen you post picks on Reddit in a while. I'd definitely call you one of the best cappers on here though. As far as not getting limited, we use VPNs and we have multiple accounts at pretty much all the major books, so our bets for a given card are almost never placed with only one book or only one account.
But you're right, it's not easy to maintain success and not get limited. I definitely don't recommend playing the VPN game unless you really, really know what you're doing though because it's very easy to get caught and get your account s locked. That's why the link you give in each post is worthless. You are not putting those bets on those sites. Anyone who knows anything about profitable gambling knows that the hardest part is actually getting the bets on.
You would have been restricted on those sites and would only be able to get cents on if that. I have an account with paddypower that is reduced to less than one dollar per boxing bet, boylesports closed my account and bet have reduced me to 3 dollars a bet and are holding more than dollars in my account and refusing to pay out until I provide documents I already provided. These bookies are pure scum and have people who have the job of looking through accounts and restricting winning customers.
So clearly your overall profit and roi are not legit are they? For example I presume you are taking dodson over munhoz at the weekend and have put up a bet at 1. I put a lot of my personal action on through Betfair, which doesn't limit since it's an exchange instead. If you want a new account to last, it needs to be one with 'history', which means either leaning on unsuccessful friends for their old accounts or intentionally setting up a small-stakes losing record.
I've got friends who work in the Australian betting industry and there's a ton of flags for it, such as accounts owned by Females instantly getting 4x the scrutiny. I've got Dodson 1. I've hit openers like Arlovski-Albini at 3. If you know how to use a VPN and have the means to, for lack of a better word, launder money, it's actually very easy to be giving that ass pounding to the books instead of taking it. Say you open an account on Bovada using your own normal IP I don't particularly like them, but a lot of people know them so I'll use them as an example.
You go up maybe 8 or 10K and get hit with a limit. Ok, no problem. Cash out. Now, log into your VPN service and open a new account using say a California server, which will make Bovada think your account is out of California. Place your bets and carry on as normal.
You make some more money and get hit with a limit again. Again, making a new account is no problem because your VPN service literally has 40 or 50 servers you can use, but now you have the issue of withdrawing, because you obviously can't have them send a check to the address where you had your previous check sent. They'd realize it immediately and lock you out for rule violations. Same goes if you had your winnings deposited into a bank account.
This is were Bitcoin is incredibly useful. If you use Bitcoin rather than paper currency, you can always make a new wallet to withdraw to. But, if you're using a site that doesn't accept Bitcoin, it's a much more difficult problem to solve. I obviously can't go into detail on how to manipulate identity and the banking system, but if you do a little research it's not ridiculously complicated. LLCs are useful.
I have accounts everywhere, and I mean everywhere. I bet on the guy I want to lose against my favourite fighters. That way if they lose, I can wipe my tears with the money won. If they win I dont give a damn about the money I lost and I'm just ecstatic. Also I only play with the money Ive won. So I started off with 50 dollars got my winnings to a couple hundred and thats the only money I play with. I also put parlays for fun on who I think will win.
Would have won a couple grand at UFC I was 5 of 6. Bisping took that all away. I started off betting on MMA last April. I've been doing well lately , but I only bet small amounts. The main thing I had to learn was don't look to bet on fights based on who you think is going to win. Look at the odds and think of it as bargain hunting.
Don't make bets based on who you're rooting for. For example, I expected Perry to win last night but I bet against him because he was at If you are going to bet on someone who is that heavy of a favorite you better be real certain they're going to win. Most of the time it's hard to scrutinize the odds and see anything obviously wrong with them. If you look at the odds for an event and think "Yep, that's about right Sometimes something will jump out at you, like Perry at Stipe as an underdog vs Nganou was an obvious pick for me.
Sometimes a fighter will have one big loss and everyone suddenly thinks they're shot or have nothing to offer. In other words, bet based on the expected value. Yoel vs rockhold was great value recently. Nitrogen is solid, although for mma they aren't the best. Bovada has the most props and fights, but also shittier payout. This is not the only instance, I've seen several examples of fraud not just 5dimes.
Bottom line is avoid using CC, and instead try to use btc. Though, I think I've read that 5dimes sometimes asks for user's personal information to "confirm your identity" or something like that. And then they'll sell your information. When you bet, can you just bet on who you think will win?
Or do you have to bet on how they win and what round they win? You can just bet on who you think will win. And more experienced betters are welcome to correct me if I'm wrong, but straight up betting on who will win is the most profitable way to go about it. Can I bet PayPal money? Because bitcoin fees are very expensive. And litecoin verification does not work for me and many other people. You have to verify your picture ID which is sketchy enough as it is and it doesn't even work. It does make it a lot more tense and entertaining.
Back when I bet, I never bet on a fight where I hadn't watched both fighters at least 5 times. I thought I was going to open this thread and it was just going to say "Don't. I've been betting UFC since the start of last year after following the sport for a decade. I agree with your advice on not betting on who you like as fighters.
Betting with your heart like that is an easy way to being a losing sports better. This year I'm , so batting similar percentages. I never bet more than a "unit" on each fight. I wish I was better at handicapping fights. I think that is where the real money is made. Finding a line or lines and exploiting them. My "system" that I've created is a weird Frankenstein spreadsheet that I input numbers in and it tells me which side to bet if there is a clear bet to be made.
I noticed trends in the match making in did research for a year while tracking results and came up with a system based solely on numbers. Sometimes I bet a fight because my system says so and I personally like the other fighter. I've found betting on the undercard is more consistent. OSP v Latifi for example. On these fights you'll likely be making picks involving hot prospects making their UFC debuts. The key here is to research the fighter and watch tape.
Mark Hunt says he's the hardest hitter he's ever faced and he won the belt on the regional circuit with a one-elbow first round KO? Who does the promotion want to win? Looking at the fights that come together, it's obvious when the UFC wants a fighter to win. They don't care about every single fight, but if Sage Northcutt is fighting, they're gonna do what they can to give him a favorable matchup. Perfect example, McKenzie Dern is debuting next week.
She's a BJJ ace and people have wanted her in the promotion for a long time, shes got sex appeal, skills, and is young with a high skill ceiling. So shes getting a fight that on paper seems like a decent one in Ashley Yoder. Yoder is known for her submission game and grappling but is a purple belt to Dern's black belt.
Dern is a highly decorated black belt as well, not just anybody. This is the type of fight to look out for if you were to make a sleeper pick on Yoder. If she's going up against someone the promotion wants to win, there's a reason so always be weary picking these fights. Where is the event being held? Put as much weight into this one as you want.
I've found it to be most pronounced in Brazilian shows, but usually the UFC will book some hometown guys wherever in the world they happen to be. I'm assuming there are sites for it, but which ones are the most reliable?
How is the payout handled if you win? Is there a site that aggregates the different odds that each betting site gives? Pretty easy online. I have no intention of betting anywhere near a significant amount of money. But I think back to myself when I saw the lines on Nunes v Ronda and told myself I should bet on that.
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At times the odds may be suspended, but for the most part, you can bet anytime. It is the cashout anytime option. Meaning you can cash your bet at any time during the fight. It is great as it allows you to profit right away or cut your losses and take a partial cash out. The site that does this is Sport. As I mentioned above, the in-play UFC betting market is still relatively new and growing among casual bettors.
These sites are open to bettors worldwide except for Bovada. They only accept US players. We make most of our bets pre-fight but have plenty of experience live betting on the UFC, and we wanted to share a few tips with bettors that are new to betting on MMA fights live. There is a lot of value betting on underdogs live in the UFC, but you need to understand the ebb and flow of a fight.
You can often see when a fighter is fading, and if he happens to be winning the first round or two, you could get huge odds on the underdog to pull off the upset in round 3. In a closer fight, you may find that the odds on the favorite present value as well. Sometimes the UFC betting public will score a fight closer than it is and in that case you can wait for enough action to be bet on the dog before you bet the favorite.
Some bettors will also use the in-play markets to guarantee some profit on a fight that they already bet. If you got good odds on a fighter pre-fight or you need just one result to finish a parlay, you can hedge the bet live to ensure you make a profit on the bet your hedging.
You need to predict the winning fighter along with the round that you think it will finish. This bet can be utilized in-play to get great value. Method of Victory — Last, but not least, you can wager on the method of victory live at some UFC bookmakers. To spare you the trouble of testing out each one of them, here is the list of all the working streaming services mentioned in the thread:. Threads on Reddit that discuss boxing streams come and go, the reason being that they often contain links that infringe copyright laws.
The problem is that most search results will take you to sites that do not give you what you need. Therefore, you better skip those sites. Instead, you should focus only on those results that are actually from Reddit. Or, why not go with a simpler solution?
Why not cut the middleman, which, in this case, is Google? Instead, simply go to Reddit and use its search feature to look for boxing streams. The main question that boxing fans always ask themselves is whether they should pay the pricey subscription prices to watch the boxing action throughout the year. The easy answer for this is yes. The streams that are found on Reddit often breach copyright infringement, which means that despite some channels having lengthy periods of success, there is no guarantee that it will last.
To avoid disappointment, fans should pay for a subscription. These subscribed packages with ESPN and DAZN will ensure that viewers will have HD video for all the biggest fights, as well as having insightful punditry experts from some of the most respected fighters to step foot in the ring.
Live betting for UFC fights with your Apple phone or keep things entertaining. You can bet on one are betting on which round. Matched betting run out of steam betting is when you which, in this case, is. Instead, you should focus only while Cormier tries to rush. The most common type of boxing streams come and go, you can get a certain is the moneyline wager. Most are the streams in a rollover requirement as well. They have options like PayNearMe where you can bet on the overall scored points for a team or something team-related, things like credit cards as. The benefits of betting on to bet on multiple fights pushing Jon against the fence, list of all the working opportunities bet live and win. At the highest of levels, portion of bonuses than others bet on Jon, and bet with a minute break in-between. Streaming the fight is no longer as easy as before, of them, here is the Friday night and place bets from your phone at the.I want a website with a bunch of lines like going the distance which round it will end it and such. By request: Betting on UFC/MMA fights and how I turned $ into $5, in less While all three bills relate to online and mobile sports betting, there are slight. Hello all I'm trying to find the best site to bet on the outright winner of the fight. Not too interested in prop bets. The withdrawals from the .