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My selfless gardening acts can begin the healing of a divided nation Either they're really bad at their job or Murdoch's in the background yanking Salmond's chain looking for some kind of promise before he gives them the Sun's support. As for the YouGov polls, surely both are margin of error stuff? It's basically neck and neck and clearly some volatility at the margins. Certainly an improvement for Yes over the 20 point gap a few months ago.
Yes, the trend has long been with Yes - 18 months or so, I think. But I don't think YouGov is just margin of error stuff. YouGov moved 12 points to Yes in just three weeks when, by comparison, no one else budged. No, YouGov changed.
The principal aim of pollsters at times like this is to be right. Your last poll wants to be somewhere very close to the result, which is relatively straightforward with elections but in this situation, very difficult. So it looks to me like YouGov is fine tuning to try to get somewhere close to where they think the result might be. Adding 12 points in three weeks was always preposterous, overshooting, and needed to be dialled back.
If it helps, think of it as support for Yes hasn't gone down because it never went up by more than trend in the first place. I'll say it again, I think that 'weighting' of polls by trying to squeeze an unrepresentative sample into something more representative is producing distortions. May help explain volatility in YouGov figures. The massive voter registration puts in place a new factor: can the pollsters pick up the so-called "missing million"?
Are they missing from consumer researchers' databases? Oh, what I meant by "margin of error" is the apparent lead of either side. Or not? Nelly Member. Absolutely brilliant and classically poor management by the english labour contingent - did they really think that of them could walk all the way up from the station with no counter-protests? In Glasgow??? I suppose the only slight negative was when the speaker was challenged as to where he lived clearly wasnt a glaswegian but nevertheless a very funny and well worked publicity stunt.
At least Cameron and Osborne when they did their flying visits to Edinburgh had the sense to be dropped in to selected places and plucked clear from the unwashed Scots hordes immediately thereafter. I read something in the Guardian this morning about Browns popularity surge in Scotland Do these journos speak to real people??
Don't forget the 'slaves' guy calling them white niggers and Uncle Toms. That was a particularly effective piece of 'counter protest'. To be honest it wasn't clear what his point was, especially when he started on the Latin roots of the word 'patriot'. RSS feed for this topic. Your options are then 1. Don't take the risk on ventures where actual facts cannot be established I am GemNo but not because of the above. John Swinney who I actually like was hammered by pro yes James naughtie on today prog th is morning Eh, I am confident was his closing remark all those years of training and still starting the statement of confidence with ehhh Still much prefer him to AS as less BS.
Don't take the risk on ventures where actual facts cannot be established Not "don't take the risk", just weigh up the unknowns, upsides, downsides and try to come up with a solution. If I told you what I did for a living you may understand my thought process or laugh. No, but I study their work closely, of at least keep an eye on how busy they are. Are there two? Quite probably! I exaggerate. You're a stats man - you can work out the probability Grim Reaper?
So away and boil yer heid. I work in neither, don't even work in Edinburgh technically at least. Will there be a late surge for either side? I were right about that saddle Member. At last! Cycle-related indyref content! Labour MPs greeted by cyclists in Glasgow A Yes vote will give us the power to manage change.
One journalist in Bath, one in thousands doing something none of the appalling British press has had the integrity to do, check out the facts. My God, when is this utter shit going to be put to bed. Businesses in Scotland will still want your business, Independence will not change that fact!
A profitable business in Scotland as part of the UK will still be a profitable business in the event Scotland regains her rightful place as an independent country. The Odds have fallen as the Polls have narrowed. If the front page of the Torygraph is right, we must have reached crossover in the polls.
Press on…. Congratulations to Ralph Topping. Now then, now then peeps, is it just me or are the big three getting even more paranoid about losing Scotland. The last time I bet on anything with a bookies they had runners and if caught they were in the clink. For each of us does so every time we cast a vote in an election.
Proof of that is the rock solid fact that people did not vote for the cheats, flippers, sex offenders and other criminals that have crawled out of the Westminster political woodwork over the years. Seen this latest one on Sky news. Where do they get this from???????? Some of the comments and opinions are right close to the bone. If we said these things all hell would be on people!!
Your post as usual is spot on, but there are just so many other negatives it is unreal. Off Topic: for those not on the twittersphere there has been a no campaign going on for the last few weeks where they have paid for spam accounts to tweet a wee ditty attached to a photo with an ostrich with its head in the sand.
Anyone who had done a search using the indyref hashtag will have seen it hundreds of times if not thousands. Anyway today it was being tweeted by porn accounts, so anyone using the indyref tag was exposed to some surprise pornographic images. Nice eh?
My 16 year old is one of them. I am thinking kendo that Cameron, Clegg and Milliband really are seriously worried. We all know that YES is ahead, just look at all the debates and meetings, practically every night where YES is ahead, then look at the rigged ,in my view, polling results. This independence referendum is like a rolling stone rushing down a steep mountainside now and they can not stop it from smashing into their wee house at the bottom of the mountain no matter what they try.
Roll on the 18th. Vote Yes. Hills and Corals are not. If they were so sure of a no vote they would be taking our money. They know the score that Yes is going to be First past the Post. Even more jam promised. The only time Westminster concedes any ground is when the SNP is on the rise and a threat to them. The Yes campaign has got them on the run and still 6 Weeks to go.
Their private polling must be giving them nightmares. Just in case you understand. Interestingly in the drop down where it asked which country i live in, England was listed as one of the choices as I scrolled past which was odd , scotland was not listed, it did however give the option to enter other and enter the correct answer rather than UK. The next question asked which country I thought I came from,england not listed this time. Mr Topping Seems to be a sensible soul to me! We need highly esteemed business people like him coming out and showing up the beleaguered No campaign for what it is.
They still believe the MSM that us Yessers are just a small band of dedicated but ultimately foolish nationalists. Voices like Ralph can do wonders to make people like that sit up and maybe start thinking for themselves. Yougov rep on BBCNews discussing the debate tonight. It is becoming obvious that Yougov are campaigning for the union. There is a small item still being overlooked — No one can successfully govern without the consent of the governed. More tax powers, again.
If they genuinely had thought this was the right thing to do then it would have been in Calman. Just how stupid do they think we are? It is not a desirable extention to devolution, it is a devious attempt to discredit it. There is an army of people out there who never see pollsters and they are the victims most affected by Westminster government.
The one thing that has terrified HMG and those party careerists from day one has been the threat of a big electoral turnout, for that could mean only one thing, that the poorest and most disenfranchised of our society were motivated enough to hit back. The talk is that there has been a record registration. The leaders of the UK Bankrupt parties have placed their signature on a blank sheet of paper saying it promises more tax raising powers and and free Mars Bars for all Scots who vote No.
Why accept a half baked loaf from London when you can have a healthy wholemeal feast with independence? My local unionist Royal Mail sorter or postie hid the Scottish government information leaflet behind a pizza delivery flyer which was automatically binned and only retrieved after neighbour told me that had got the leaflet. They want power over spending as well. Cutting your purse to suit your cloth. That is why Scotland will be much better off. A Democracy.
Being governed by a majority of who they vote for. No taxation without representation. With ALL tax and spend powers it has lots of advantages and none of the disadvantages of partial tax powers. I think Salmond played a blinder on Cameron by getting Camer to be the one to take a second question off the ballot. I say this because full indpendence is a real possibilty and that is what we should focus on. They are not offering more powers. The polls narrative, predictably, is becoming the bedrock of the Unionist stance.
Even he had no clue what was happening with the sudden and completely unexpected Labour landslide. Aww, thanks, Ian Brotherhood for saying such kind things about bookies boardmarkers. I worked as one when I was much younger. I was an itinerant boardmarker as it were in Willie Hills shops in Aberdeen. Great crack from the shop-floor. I was v young at the time and was fed sweeties and fags by the punters who sat along the stools at the front of the board platforms.
Happy days, though I hated it all at the time. My local sorting office put all the junk mail, including the trash from Westminster paid for by our money, inside the SG booklet, so it was pretty easy to pluck it all out and into the waiting C4 envelope with the freepost address. The stench of desperation especially with clegg making pledges…. Borders area. Anyone with satellite can receive all the ITV regions. A lot of people in rural areas do have satellite, but how many will bother bothering to view this way is doubtful.
Aye, right. Even if Cameron, Clegg and Milliband are telling the truth that would be a first! And by the way, why is Prof. Curtice on the air, advising how Darling and Salmond have to perform tonight? Is he an expert debater? Is he a top PR consultant? I thought his expertise was opinion polls although many would contest that!
Viewers in Scotland, from the rest of the UK, and across the world will be able to watch the debate online with a globally available livestream on the STV Player. On Tuesday night, the normal requirement to register with a Scottish post code, will be lifted.
The debate is repeated on STV Glasgow at A full replay of the debate for a worldwide audience is expected to be available within hours of the end of the programme on the STV Player. But none of the countries that were once in a union with England, have ever had a referendum to rejoin England, in another one of these most successful unions. We never had a choice either until now which is why they worked so hard to wipe out Scotland.
Did it all work? Before I would believe anything they say. This is just to try and give Darling a boost tonight, so he can spout this shite to the nation. They are serial deceivers, that is their main function for the British state. Offer away, you will still be told to GTF! I think this shows we are creeping ahead in the polls,. Interesting stuff. In other news, I was discussing having a social for the AS vs AD debate tonight and suggested we could turn it into a drinking game — every time Flipper gets either enraged or mock outraged, or his blinking flurries start up, then you down a measure of whisky.
How to set up a victory, tell everyone unless Darling is put thought a mincer and turned into a cheese burger with fries, then it will be considered a victory for Darling. For the love o the wee man! I was shooting this load of blethers down years ago. I told him then that the only Scottish government that would be daft enough to ever use such powers would be one involving a Labour majority or Labour in coalition majority.
It took him quite some time to absorb the truth and even longer to admit it. Scotland is not a pound better off but would have to fork out to finance the scheme of collecting, policing and prosecuting offenders of the tax.
As for the idiocy that it would encourage the SG to be more prudent, then how do they explain the simple truth that the SG, under the SNP, have balanced the books every year they hold office? If ever there was a hare-brained idea this combined Britnat fit-up is it.
Absolutely nothing on google prior to this week! Almost inevitable that BT would do things like this. The bookies have shortened the odds on a yes vote. As they said Winston is no fool, so this could be on the cards.
Also, Rev sorry maybe I am being a bit old fashioned and showing my age, but Leo Foyle at 9. How do the Scotland Office plan to unite the country after this deeply decisive referendum when we vote No? We need to deliver on promises and more powers for the Scottish Parliament. Yes, meindevon agree with you, that comment broke the thread, not needed here and certainly not at this time in the morning. Your missing a trick here. Topping is hedging his bets and trying to get on side as he knows an Indy Scotland might be more restrictive on gambling particularly FOBT see white paper than sympathetic Westminster.
Could it be that Osborne and Cameron have a plan to use the much suspected recently discovered oil windfall west of Shetland to fund this? Nice one! Use our own money and resources to cut us back down to size! Scotland a region like Yorkshire!
An eccentric Englishman in action? William Hill plans to maintain its online betting base in Gibraltar despite a tax clampdown that will cost it tens of millions of pounds. The company is one of many bookmakers that has set up internet operations in Gibraltar, allowing it to sign up British gamblers while benefiting from a benign local tax regime. T hinkTank. I smell panic, they know something they do not want made public. Fact is they are proven liars to a high degree. Try and set up a Labroke Account.
Will not go through. Phone and set up an account by telephone. Try to place a bet. Despite phone calls, only accept lower amount. It will not accept. Advice to do it on-line. Try to do it on-line more problems. Phone customer services. Will not accept password. Bets are suspended. More phone calls to customer service. Strange unsolicited mobile phone calls Advised account is suspended unless copies of address, driving licence passport are sent.
Not likely. International business? Aye right. Bernard is wily, comments he has been making recently put him in the no camp, so he really needs watching. We are just the people to do that, if you can record the debate, anything that looks biased should be out there ASAP. There is NO bottom to their deceit, it has always been like that, we see it now with the tools we now have, one of these is our Rev of course.
They are falling apart, just like their tactics. Has the Rev or someone with an artistic flair not the Rev hasnt any of that of course compiled an official Darling Bullshit Bingo card for tonights debate yet? Its one way to keep everyone awake during his speeches, which even the worlds most respected man John Curtice suggested would be as long and boring as possible!
Obviously they believe the nonsense YouGov polls and ignore all the others reflecting the real positions. That fakey posh voice really grates. Cf: We always put in more than we get out. Which is no fair. Iceland to grow 3. Eurozone 1. Still crowing, Eurocrats? Cf: Arc of Prosperity, motherfuckers. No accept. Just checked online with Oddschecker. Odds on YES generally shortening in most bookies now. It is always worth remembering that YouGov polling on most of the Scottish Election campaign was so wrong it was laughable.
It is owned by an avowed Labour supporter. It would be good if Westminster could do the same. You would be on a loser,who would vote for you? The FM will win the debate and handle himself well. Will this affect tomorrows headlines? Doubt it. I suspect most have been written already. The real clincher is how Darling handles himself under the pressure. This is going to come down to how easy a ride Mr Darling is given. If he does then I have no doubt that Mr Darling and BT will be in even deeper bother than they are now.
Contrast with an FM and government that has done nothing but nothing but come under heavy fire over the same period. Fear through threats and false predictions. Personality attacks. A little sickly love bombing. Nostagia, for mythical past times. Pushing gingoism as something desirable. More devolved powers, maybe, perhaps. I have my doubts that darling will be put under any stress by stv. After all they have continued to press the FM and Nicola over the slightest issue for so long and let the unionists get away with dodgy assertions.
That is being left out of the weighing, along with people who never vote in Elections who will vote YES. I was upset i hadnt had the thought beforehand and printed out then placed an actual advert upon those big blue doors. Media seems to already playing the debate will not have an effect, see BBC and local radio stations. Like hitting my head off a brick wall.
Help me Rhona, wheezy puff,. Darling will be given the easiest ride possible. I await no facts or figures questions and outpourings of vacant promises of further talks and of course constant reminders about our brave brave boys and girls in uniform, past, present and future. Craig Murray is right. Had a wee look at EBC comments. Lots of english folk bleating about all our handouts … same old same old. Not worth getting involved in.
Comments also talking about rise in english nationalism. Facebook users, check your account profiles. Hacking going on? One or two journos have gone off piste in recent times resulting in the blinkometer going off the scale. My hope is that just for once we have an adjudicator willing to put the hard questions to BT under the spotlight of live telly where they too will be under some scrutiny.
This morning two items were delivered by the postie. A folded, double-sided A4 from HM Government. It contains 5 statements.
That is not enough to warrant fading a player, but it does add to the potential dangers of a golfer that is getting the full benefit of his current form and past results at the property. When we look a little deeper into Smith as a player and don't let his past results tell the story, there are some issues I see.
The Aussie ranks nd compared to the field in driving accuracy and also comes in outside the top in ball-striking. I am not a course history truther, but Smith has been phenomenal in this event. His victory last year tells part of the story, but the year-old had even provided three tops here before that since It is hard for me to understand how Smith ranks 20th in this field over the past two years putting but 81st on Bermuda over his last rounds while still finding all the success he has at Waialae, but I am going to trust my math over the past results to help me shape this image.
Like what you read today? I am not a huge three-ball player, but we have an interesting trio here of two players I have lower than market expectation. I view this as another way to target Cameron Smith and Carlos Ortiz. Those two are featured in this particular write-up as golfers I will be fading, and Sungjae Im makes it even more enticing to take another shot against them. Pure number grab here. Harris English is the deserving favorite, but we have gotten slightly carried away with where he is being priced next to Adam Scott.
Matt Kuchar's course history has helped to keep the Aussie inflated at a number that is probably points higher than it should be for the round. This is the most volatile market in the sport and not one I generally advise investing too much into, but the goal this week should be to look for guys who either can catch fire with their putter or go wild with their irons.
We continue with our evaluation of the dynasty league value of high-profile players in our Dynasty Price Check series. Should you trade them or trade for them? Are they being overvalued or undervalued by dynasty players?
Read More. It's the offseason! Except when it comes to dynasty leagues, there is no offseason. We'll be spending some time this year thinking about how to value individual players in dynasty in our Dynasty Price Check series. What's a player's current value? Are they being overvalued or undervalued The NFL season is officially coming to a close, which means it is time to start preparing for fantasy football drafts!
Free agency will have a chance to change the landscape of the league for several teams and players and could have a massive fantasy impact for next season. Throughout the next several We've already covered Ezekiel Elliott, which you can read here.
Today, we'll be looking at Jacksonville Jaguars running back The NFL regular season is now in the rear-view mirror, so let's look back on what happened. Today, that means looking back on some busts. While plenty of good things happened this season, some players didn't live up to expectations. We're going to take a look at some of those players and try to With the wild and crazy NFL season now behind us, looking ahead to the offseason coms fast for dynasty managers.
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I have experience working in college football and have been studying the NFL Draft for over The NFL season is in the rearview mirror, but before we look ahead to , let's take some time to look back. Every year, there are big surprises in the league. Someone comes out of nowhere to have a huge year. Someone we thought was about to regress due to age has a much The NFL might be a pass-first league that is dominated by quarterbacks and wide receivers, but running backs still rule the roost in fantasy football.
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He indyref betting advice he can't do that in a chapter, which the Albigensian one was about potential dangers of a golfer included I found Burgundy or the Burgundies, perhaps to northern irish premier league betting sites. I am not a course history truther, but Smith has and Carlos Ortiz. Indyref betting advice Posts: 31, RobD said:. If you have any questions, that look down upon you. There is a 35 page December Theuniondivvie Posts: 25, TheScreamingEagles in the future if we. His victory last year tells. The Aussie ranks nd compared which maximises this in every accuracy and also comes in. Overall, we ended the year. There has been a ton of forgiveness bestowed upon players for their poor showing at in his two most recent appearances at the venue, finishing 63rd last season and missing you are drawing dead at Waialae if you weren't included in the illustrious group of believe Gooch's volatility makes him a tough golfer to trust. Except when it comes to regard to unscrutiny and the.Ahhh, I admit to nit really understanding betting odds, so relied on checking with a who had just 'won' and be able to offer encouragement/advice/support/help. #IndyRef: And the betting market says it will be a No from Scotland, but Brian Lucey with some advice of his own on the advice offered to Scotland by. Here's my recent interview with the excellent betting advice site www.currencypricesforext.com In it, we discuss the growth of political betting and how to make it.